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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:33z 347 Lines 13503 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4503_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-JUL23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<GB7YEW<KE0GB<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230731/1200Z 4503@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUL 31 09:02:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON JUL 31 09:02:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUL 31 09:02:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUL 31 09:02:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUL 31, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MAINLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, COASTAL SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND VICINITY. A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE THE
IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...
A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING SHOULD MITIGATE
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT POCKETS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
MLCAPE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS...
A SEVERE MCS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE REMNANT
MCV/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WHERE BETTER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOCATED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM FARTHER NORTH ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE, PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REMNANT MCV/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION COULD PROVIDE SHEAR FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED THREAT, BUT THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD-COVER CONCERNS
AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
MCS WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS TO A GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
NONETHELESS, SOME LOCALIZED THREAT MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS FRONTAL
ZONE IF STRONG DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR BENEATH THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME IF OR WHERE
THAT MAY OCCUR.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD BE LATE IN THE PERIOD
(06-12Z) AS A 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
MOISTURE RECOVERY IS ALSO FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH 3000 TO
4000 J/KG MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT TRAINING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AMID
STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WEAK SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS
PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS) SHOULD MITIGATE MORE THAN A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER NORTH, ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA, A MORE
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT STRONG HEATING SHOULD ERODE INHIBITION BY MIDDAY. A SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT, SO IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP,
SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE LIKELY STORM MODE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL (POTENTIALLY 2+ INCH) AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF OBVIOUS FORCING (OTHER THAN PERHAPS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW) CASTS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE IN THIS REGION.
...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY AS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWAT VALUES ARE LIFTED NORTHWARD
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS, BUT A LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE
THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR TO ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GREATER SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 07/31/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 31, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
...ND/MN...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35-50 KT WILL BE ORIENTED
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COMPACT MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL DEVELOP
EAST ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KT WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST STRONG OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE. MARGINAL HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, POTENTIALLY LIMITING
STORM COVERAGE AND PRECLUDING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BUT
EAST/SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD LOW 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN CO/WY. THIS WILL
FOSTER RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25 KT
MAY SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...LOWER-MO/MID-MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING MAY BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. FORECAST GUIDANCE
VARIES, BUT AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT OUTFLOW AND SUPPRESSED
HEATING FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING, TEMPERING SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, IF MORNING CONVECTION IS LESS THAN FORECAST, SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP WITHIN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST-FLOW REGIME.
..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 31, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA,
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY.
...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A CORRIDOR
OF MID/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MN, WI, AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. THIS WILL AID IN A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALSO
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEVERTHELESS,
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL.
..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 31, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A LESS AMPLIFIED, QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH AROUND DAY 6/SAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
DURING THIS TIME, AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY SMALL-SCALE PROCESSES NOT
WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME SCALE. LATE IN THE PERIOD, FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/OR GREAT LAKES VICINITY. THIS COULD
HELP TO FOCUS A BOUT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL U.S., BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST OREGON, AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. WITHIN THIS BROADER REGION OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, STRONGER MIXING IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR RENO INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
WITHIN THIS REGION, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THEREFORE, AN ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED TO COVER THE
THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 07/31/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS ON TUESDAY
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. FOR NOW, THE ELEVATED
DELINEATION COVERS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO EXIST NORTHWARD INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES, MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER,
FUELS REMAIN GREEN ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN EARLY JULY.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER, WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD MOISTEN FUELS IN THE REGION AND ALLEVIATE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FINALLY, SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO, BUT THE
THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED FOR AN ELEVATED AREA AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 07/31/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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