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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.05.19 10:12z 380 Lines 21337 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 18 05
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Sent: 190518/1008Z 24762@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
28.125 USB @ 300 BAUD --- HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 180 TORNADO OK TX 180715Z - 181500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest and southcentral Oklahoma
Western and northern Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph
possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
northeast across the watch area this morning with a risk for a
couple of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. The potential
for significant severe wind gusts will exist as storms merge into
a fast-moving line later this morning.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Fort Sill
OK to 45 miles south of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Bunting
WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0180 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SLN TO
20 NNW MHK TO 40 S BIE TO 15 E FNB.
..JEWELL..05/18/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC061-117-131-149-161-180840-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEARY MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE
RILEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0178 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 178
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW RSL TO
20 ENE RSL TO 30 WSW CNK TO 10 SW CNK TO 40 N CNK.
..JEWELL..05/18/19
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 178
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC027-029-041-123-143-157-201-180740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON MITCHELL
OTTAWA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible over a large area today,
from Texas to southern Minnesota, with the greatest threat from
northeast Texas across southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas and northwest
Louisiana. A few tornadoes, widespread damaging winds and large
hail are expected.
...Significant Event Including Widespread Wind Damage and a Few
Strong Tornadoes Expected Today across parts of the Southern Plains,
Arklatex and southern Ozarks...
...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Southern Ozarks... A negatively-tilted
upper-level trough will move eastward into the southern High Plains
today as a moist and unstable airmass advects northward into the
southern Plains. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to be ongoing across north-central Texas and southwest
Oklahoma during the morning, associated with a 40 to 50 kt
low-level jet. Model forecasts develop this cluster upscale into
an MCS, moving a squall-line eastward across Oklahoma and north
Texas during the day. As surface heating takes place ahead of the
line, cell intensity within the cluster is expected to gradually
increase. Surface dewpoints ahead of the MCS should be in the upper
60s and lower 70s F with MLCAPE values reaching the 2500 to 3500 J/Kg
range by early afternoon. In addition, a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet
is forecast to move across the southern Plains. This feature will
enhance lift and create strong deep-layer shear profiles favorable
for bow echoes within the squall-line. An isolated tornado threat
along with potential for wind damage and isolated large hail is
forecast during the early afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northeast Texas.
As the linear MCS moves into far eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas
and far northeast Texas, the current thinking is that new convection
will develop on the southern end of the MCS. At the same time,
the strengthening low-level jet will become coupled with the
mid-level jet. In addition, a cluster of discrete cells could also
develop ahead of the squall-line across western Arkansas and far
northeast Texas with a shear environment favorable for supercells and
tornadoes. There is conditionality associated with this scenario.
RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in southwest Arkansas show MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45
kt range. This combined with looped hodographs and 0-3 km storm
relative helicities of 300 to 400 m2/s2 would be favorable for
strong tornadoes if a cluster of discrete cells can develop. The
more certain scenario would be for widespread wind damage to occur
along the leading edge of the linear MCS. The threat is expected
to be maximized across western and central Arkansas extending
southwestward into far northeast Texas in the 20Z to 00Z time-frame.
The severe threat should be less with south south-westward extent
into east Texas where wind damage and large hail will be possible. A
wind damage threat and potential for tornadoes associated with the
squall-line is expected to continue into the evening as far east
as the Mississippi River.
...South-central and Southwest Kansas/Northwest and North-central
Oklahoma... A negatively-tilted upper-level trough will move into
the southern High Plains today. At the surface, a low is forecast
to develop in the northeastern Texas Panhandle as a cold front
advances southeastward across western Kansas. Surface heating ahead
of the front should enable a corridor of moderate instability to
develop from western Kansas southeastward into northwest Oklahoma by
afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected
to occur along this corridor during the mid to late afternoon just
ahead of a shortwave trough. RAP forecast soundings from Dodge City
to northwest of Oklahoma City late this afternoon show MLCAPE values
in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear of 45 to 55 kt.
This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km
should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Supercells that
develop where instability becomes strongest, may have potential
to produce hailstones of 2 inches or greater in diameter. A wind
damage threat is also expected but cell coverage may remain somewhat
isolated across the area.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface,
a cold front will advance eastward across the mid Missouri Valley
as a low develops across northwest Iowa. The moist sector should be
located to the southeast of the low across much of Iowa extending
southward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating will likely
enable a pocket of moderate instability to develop across the
moist sector by afternoon. This combined with increasing low-level
convergence to the southeast of the surface low should result in
scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings at Des Moines late this afternoon show MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates would be enough for
rotating cells or organized multicells capable of producing isolated
large hail. Wind damage would also be possible, especially with fast
moving short line segments. The severe threat could persist into
the early evening mainly in areas where instability is the strongest.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 05/18/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OH
VALLEY...LOWER MI...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across portions of Lower Michigan, the Ohio Valley, and
the Northeast States on Sunday.
...Synopsis... Shortwave trough centered over the MO/IA early
Sunday is expected to progress northeastward through the mid/upper
MS Valley and upper Great Lakes. Associated surface low will
likely be over eastern IA at the beginning of the period, with a
cold front extending southwestward through central MO and eastern
OK to the TX Hill Country. Northern portion of this cold front is
expected to remain progressive, moving through the upper Great Lakes
region and much of the OH Valley. Southern portion will becoming
increasingly diffuse throughout the day before then surging back
northward/northwestward Sunday night/Monday morning.
...Lower MI/OH Valley...Upper Great Lakes... Scattered showers
and thunderstorm are possible Sunday morning within the warm-air
advection regime preceding the front. Anticipated elevated character
of these storms and stable low-levels will likely limit the severe
risk, although the strong wind fields suggest a low potential for
damaging wind gusts with the more robust/persistent storms.
A higher coverage severe threat is expected during the afternoon
along and just ahead of the front. Given the moist air mass (i.e.
dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) that is expected to be in place,
quick destabilization is anticipated in the wake of the early day
storms and ahead of the approaching front. Several convective bands
are possible as storms develop along the front and pre-frontal
convergence. Strong wind fields are supportive of fast storm
motions (around 50 kt) while steep lapse rates and relatively dry
mid-levels suggest the potential for the development of strong
downbursts. Cool temperatures aloft and strong vertical shear
also support the potential for hail, particularly across Lower MI
where the temperatures aloft are coldest. Veered low-level flow
and predominately linear storm mode will likely limit tornado
potential but some low potential still exists, particularly if any
more discrete storms are able to persist.
...PA/NY... Moist air mass over the region will destabilize amidst
diurnal heating with MLCAPE likely around 1500 J/kg. As such, despite
negligible large-scale forcing for ascent, surface convergence
will likely lead to convective initiation and at least scattered
storm coverage. This region is displaced east of the stronger
flow aloft but vertical shear is still supportive of occasional
storm organization. Dry mid-levels suggest the potential for the
development of strong downburst winds as the primary threat. Some
hail is also possible. The lack of enough vertical shear for more
robust storm organization indicates a low tornado probability,
with the highest likelihood for a tornado along the warm front as
it moves slowly northward into NY.
...Mid-South...Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing at the beginning of the period as a convective line
continues progressing eastward out of TX. Favorable low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) will exist ahead of the line,
suggesting some potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. However,
weakening vertical shear and displacement south of the stronger
forcing for ascent result in uncertainty regarding storm strength
and overall severe coverage.
...Southern High Plains... Strong return flow is anticipated on
Sunday across the southern High Plains, aided by the development
of a strong low-level jet Sunday night. Thunderstorms may develop
within this return flow early Monday morning. Very strong vertical
shear and steep lapse rates result in an environment supportive
of large hail. Uncertainty regarding storm development/coverage
precludes higher probabilities with this outlook.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Mosier.. 05/18/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230
AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK...AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including strong tornadoes, are expected across portions of the
southern Plains on Monday.
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...Synopsis... Active upper pattern will continue on Monday as
one shortwave trough progresses through the Northeast while another
ejects through the base of the deep upper trough over the western
CONUS late in the period.
Subtropical ridging will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico
and Southeast, resulting in the development of strong southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of the western CONUS shortwave. This strong flow
will remain in place throughout the day, likely increasing to near
100 kt at 500 mb early Tuesday morning.
Surface pattern will feature a deepening lee cyclone over the central
High Plains with a dryline extending southward across the eastern
TX Panhandle and a warm front quickly moving northward through OK.
...Southern Plains... Guidance is in good agreement that the
ingredients are in place for a potentially significant severe
weather event on Monday. A sharp warm front is expected to move
northward throughout the day, starting from an early day position
near the River Red and reaching the OK/KS border by 00Z. Air mass
south of this warm front will be very moist (i.e. dewpoints in the
upper 60s/low 70s) and unstable. Consequently, moderate to strong
instability will likely to develop across the eastern TX Panhandle,
northwest TX and much of OK, even if strong diurnal heating does
not occur. Current expectation is for temperatures in this region
to reach the low/mid 70s by late morning/early afternoon with some
areas farther east reaching mid/upper 70s.
Kinematic environment is even more impressive than the thermodynamic
environment. 60-70 kt of southwesterly 500 mb flow will gradually
spread eastward/northward across the TX Panhandle and into OK and
KS. At same time, a strong and persistent low-level jet will be in
place, with 40+ kt at 850 mb throughout the period. Surface winds
within the warm sector will likely be southeasterly at 15 to 20 kt.
All of these factors result in wind profiles very favorable for
discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including
significant tornadoes.
Given that overall large-scale forcing for ascent is minimal
throughout much of the day, much of the afternoon and evening
activity is currently expected to initiate along the dryline and
within the warm sector, with a discrete storm mode favored. As
the shortwave ejects out later in the period, a more linear MCS
may develop, resulting in a second round of severe thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
...Northeast... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of a cold front progressing across the region. Favorable
low-level moisture ahead of this front as well as strong
unidirectional wind fields will result in the potential for a few
strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
severe threat. Uncertainty regarding coverage precludes higher
severe probabilities with this forecast.
..Mosier.. 05/18/2019
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that
the strong shortwave trough ejecting over the southern Plains on
D3/Monday will develop into a closed low as it pivots towards a
more northerly forward progression on D4/Tuesday. Strong flow aloft
will continue through its southern and eastern periphery, spreading
over a narrowing warm sector from the lower MO River valley into
the Mid-South. This results in an environment supportive of severe
thunderstorms ahead of the anticipated MCS from the mid MS Valley
southwestward into the Arklatex on D4/Tuesday.
Amplification of the upper pattern is expected on D5/Wednesday as a
strong shortwave trough drops quickly southward through the western
periphery of the western CONUS trough. Strong moisture return
is anticipated across the central and southern Plains. Despite
this moisture return and the development of strong instability,
rising heights will likely mitigate the potential for widespread
severe storms.
Most recent guidance is in good agreement on the upper pattern for
D6/Thursday with upper troughing persisting across the western CONUS
while strong upper ridging builds over the Southeast and Gulf of
Mexico. While guidance is in good agreement on the upper pattern,
differences exist within the predicted surface pattern. The guidance
also shows significant run-to-run variability. These factors result
in low predictability of severe storm occurrence and coverage for
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday.
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave ridge will set up across
the Four Corners today. Mid-level flow across southern New Mexico
will be somewhat relaxed as compared to previous days. Still,
the downstream shortwave trough will induce a lee cyclone that,
in combination with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote 15-25
mph winds across much of southern New Mexico and portions of the
Trans-Pecos. During the afternoon, RH values may fall below 5% in
some locations, though most areas will see 5-15%. Meteorological
conditions will be squarely critical. However, fuel states in most
locations will not favor large fire spread. Latest SWCC/TICC fuel
guidance shows below normal ERCs and continued green up on NDVI
imagery. Thus, an elevated delineation is the most prudent course
of action with the added caveat that locally critical conditions
may occur.
..Wendt.. 05/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Strong mid-level flow will overspread portions
of the Southwest on D2/Sunday in association with a more potent,
broader trough centered across the Great Basin. In the wake of
an upstream trough, weak high pressure will be in place within the
central/southern Plains at the beginning of the period. Lee troughing
will eventually occur in the southern High Plains, but the greatest
deepening will be mistimed with peak afternoon heating. Given
that unfavorable overlap, the surface pressure gradient will
generally remain weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate
a greater potential for mid to high level cloud cover across
southern New Mexico which should inhibit boundary-layer mixing
to some extent. Fuels will continue to dry out, but remain above
critical thresholds. Even with the detrimental factors at hand,
some areas may mix down the strong mid-level flow enough to bring
about locally elevated conditions with the anticipated afternoon
RH of 5-15% (coincident with surface winds of 15-20 mph).
..Wendt.. 05/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Q: What's a WASP's idea of open-mindedness? A: Dating a Canadian.
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