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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:33z 345 Lines 12971 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4466_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-JUL23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230730/1200Z 4466@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN JUL 30 07:37:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN JUL 30 07:37:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN JUL 30 07:37:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN JUL 30 07:37:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUL 30, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER DESERTS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE EJECTING NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ID WITH ANOTHER PROMINENT VORT
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST CA. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
FEATURES WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MT BY 31/00Z THEN DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHORT WAVE, LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEAST WY INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL ENSURE FAVORABLE
EASTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S, CINH WILL WEAKEN SUCH THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INITIAL UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MT INTO NORTHERN WY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-6KM SHEAR WITH AT
LEAST 2KM SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS
SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP THEN MATURE AS THEY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY. VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG SHOULD AID THE
PRODUCTION OF POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL (IN EXCESS OF 2"). SOME
INCREASE IN LLJ DURING THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO AID UPSCALE GROWTH
OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS.
...ELSEWHERE...
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF OH VALLEY TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS.
NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN 500MB FLOW
STRENGTHENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ADDITIONALLY,
SEASONALLY HIGH PW VALUES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF CA INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF
50KT.
..DARROW/BENTLEY.. 07/30/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 30, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS COASTAL VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS
COASTAL VICINITY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ORIENTED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST GA INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM EASTERN MT TO EASTERN CO. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SEASONALLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITHIN THIS OVERALL PATTERN. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MODEST AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TIED TO MESOSCALE FEATURES/BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY PRIOR DAY'S CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME LARGER-THAN-TYPICAL CHANGES TO SEVERE PROBABILITIES/AREAS IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE NEAR A SURFACE
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS, GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR (AROUND 20 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES),
BUT CLUSTERING MAY INCREASE DAMAGING-GUST POTENTIAL VIA STORM
INTERACTIONS/CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TOWARD EASTERN WY. THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE VARIES, BUT THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AMID MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OFFERING HAIL AND STRONG GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.
...SOUTHERN AZ...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ ON
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE MID/UPPER EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT. STRONG GUSTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
...MID-MO/MS VALLEY VICINITY...
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL MORNING
CONVECTION CONTINUING FROM THE DAY 1/SUNDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL
INFLUENCE SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AND MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN EVOLUTION/TIMING OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..LEITMAN.. 07/30/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 30, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ON TUESDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VICINITY ON
TUESDAY, WITH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA, MODESTLY SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OVER MT. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY STRONGER FORCING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW NORTH ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
MODEST MID/UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST, BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS. WHILE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN A SEASONALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AND
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY, SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
LOW/UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 07/30/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 30, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEAN UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, MODEST NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE
GREAT LAKES VICINITY. THIS MAY BRING SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE DAY 5 OR
6 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOSTLY BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD APPEARS TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE 15
PERCENT PROBABILITY DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND
SINGLE-DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA, FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. IN ADDITION, A DEEPLY
MIXED AIRMASS AND MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
WILL RESULT IN SOME DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (15 MPH AND 12 TO 15
PERCENT) RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, THIS ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE CASCADES WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING WITHIN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE RESULTING
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER GAP FLOW BETWEEN CASCADE GAPS, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE MOIST, MARITIME AIRMASS LATER
IN THE EVENING AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MONSOON PUSH BRINGS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
PWAT VALUES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BETWEEN 0.5 TO 3 KM
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIER STORMS. HOWEVER, STORM SPEED WILL BE
VERY SLOW (LESS THAN 20 MPH) AND FUELS ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY DRY IN
THE REGION. THE SLOW STORM SPEEDS, HIGH PWAT VALUES AND LACK OF
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS TO OVERCOME THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS PROVIDE
JUSTIFICATION FOR NO ISODRYT HEADLINE.
..BENTLEY.. 07/30/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER. MEANWHILE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO WESTERN CANADA. AS A RESULT, THE HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. SOME
LOCALIZED, TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY
HAVE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS NOT A
SIGNAL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ELEVATED DELINEATION.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ALREADY CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH ON MONDAY AND ALLEVIATE ANY FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
THE CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY FUELS IN THE REGION.
SIMILAR TO DAY 1/SUNDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SLOW STORM SPEEDS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES (1.7 TO 1.9 IN)
SHOULD MITIGATE DRY LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..BENTLEY.. 07/30/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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