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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 09:34z 436 Lines 17555 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4660_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 04-AUG23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230804/1200Z 4660@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 4 09:04:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 4 09:04:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 1829
MD 1829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583...
VALID 040820Z - 041015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. NEW
WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 583.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM WICHITA SHOWS AN MCS OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE MCS IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG A EAST-TO-WEST CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP IS ANALYZING MLCAPE IN THE 1000
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 20
TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD MAKE ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY
ISOLATED, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
..BROYLES.. 08/04/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37969794 37839694 37709616 37609576 37659530 38109496
38839479 39429498 39709579 39859653 39949780 39679849
39069865 38199853 37969794
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SPC AUG 4, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
ALSO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A BROAD ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
...NORTHEAST...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
TODAY, AS SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE ATTENDANT
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS, WITH
SOME TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING AND A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME THREAT
MAY APPROACH NEAR-COASTAL AREAS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.
...MO/AR INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING LATER THIS
MORNING FROM PARTS OF MO/AR INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AS A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THESE CLUSTERS MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH
A SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
STRONGER PRECONVECTIVE DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.
ISOLATED HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE BUOYANCY IS
STRONGER ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR. STORMS MAY ALSO INTENSIFY NEAR A
REMNANT MCV ACROSS NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT.
IN GENERAL, RATHER WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION, AND THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDORS FOR SOMEWHAT
GREATER DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL (AND POSSIBLE EVENTUAL UPGRADE FROM
5% WIND PROBABILITIES) WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT
REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STORM COVERAGE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT GREATER FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO WESTERN NE, IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THOUGH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
CO AND WESTERN KS. WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE (HIGHER WHERE WINDS ARE
LOCALLY BACKED), SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS
A MARGINAL SUPERCELL OR TWO. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING THE EXTENT (IF ANY) OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET INTENSIFICATION LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH, BUT SOME
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
..DEAN/MOORE.. 08/04/2023
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SPC AUG 4, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC
PROVINCE AND NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHEAST SD TO SOUTHERN MN AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS KS/MO,
WITH A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED BAROCLINIC ZONE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE KS/OK BORDER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE/STRONG MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
FRONT FROM EASTERN CO NORTH EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AS CINH WEAKENS
AND ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
BOTH SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL STORM MODES ARE LIKELY WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MORE DISCRETE STORM IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOWER LCL HEIGHTS.
WITH TIME, STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS OVER WESTERN
KS VICINITY AIDED BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH A MODEST
NOCTURNALLY-INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS IN THIS AREA AS
THE IMPACTS FROM EARLY DAY STORMS ARE MORE FULLY ASSESSED.
..BUNTING.. 08/04/2023
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SPC AUG 4, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM
EASTERN IA INTO LOWER MI, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MI.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HEATING OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER (DEW POINTS MID 60S-LOWER 70S) WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS A RESPONSE TO FRONTAL
FORCING, WITH A CONTINUED/EXPANDING RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS DURING
THE EVENING. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST, PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
..BUNTING.. 08/04/2023
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SPC AUG 4, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...MONDAY/DAY 4...
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST,
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD, ALTHOUGH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...TUESDAY/DAY 5 AND BEYOND...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY, A BROAD WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS NORTH OF AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
OZARKS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF GREATER COVERAGE
WARRANTING A 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY FOR EITHER DAY REMAINS
TOO LOW WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK, SOME STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND A
SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE TROUGH. THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE FUELS
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR EARLY AUGUST ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK WHERE FUELS
REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY. DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS, WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS ALLOW FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION, WHICH
SHOULD MODULATE RH REDUCTIONS TO SOME DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20% RANGE).
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO LIMIT WIND SPEED POTENTIAL WITH MOST
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR/ABOVE 15 MPH, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTHWEST TX. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ADEQUATE WINDS, CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE WITHHELD, THOUGH WIND
SPEED TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN CA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NV AND MUCH OF OR.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS REGION SAW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
MRMS QPE ANALYSES SUGGEST WETTING RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY LIMITED.
REGIONAL 00 UTC SOUNDINGS SAMPLED STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH PWAT VALUES
RANGING FROM 0.5-1.0 INCH, FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHERN CA (NOTED OFFSHORE IN MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY)
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. GIVEN THE DRY FUEL STATUS, DRY LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A FIRE CONCERN AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION CORES.
FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN WA, A MODEST ZONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT BREEZY GAP WINDS UP TO 15-20 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH RH
VALUES IN 15-20% RANGE EXPECTED AND DRY FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE,
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE.
...ARIZONA...
DIURNAL HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF LOCALIZED AND TRANSIENT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AZ. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS LOW PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 15 MPH,
BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS
MAY POSE LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN AFTERNOON RH VALUES
IN THE LOW 20S. REGIONAL FUELS SHOULD REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 60-80TH PERCENTILE
RANGE.
..MOORE.. 08/04/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS. ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL EJECTION
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. LEE TROUGHING, COUPLED WITH THERMALLY-DRIVEN PRESSURE
FALLS, SHOULD YIELD A MODEST SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
OK/NORTHWEST TX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
100-105 F RANGE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF
SUSTAINED 15+ MPH WINDS IS GENERALLY LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX WHERE
FUELS ARE CURRENTLY MOST CRITICAL. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT 15 MPH WINDS (AND HENCE THE GREATEST
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN) ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK DURING PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS REGION MAY ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES, WHICH
CASTS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. WHILE ELEVATED CONCERNS APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CONSIDERING THE
CRITICAL NATURE OF THE FUELS.
...ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES REGION WILL ALSO
AUGMENT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AZ INTO NORTHERN NM. SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH COUPLED WITH 15-20% RH APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON
BOTH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. WHILE
ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE, DRIER/WINDIER SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. SCATTERED POCKETS OF
WETTING RAIN OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS COMPLICATE FUEL STATUS TO SOME
DEGREE, BUT AT LEAST LOW-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR LIKELY.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.6 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS CONDUCIVE FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST NV INTO OR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHERN CA. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO, BUT RECENT RAINFALL APPEARS TO HAVE
MITIGATED FUEL STATUS BASED ON RECENT FUEL GUIDANCE.
..MOORE.. 08/04/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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