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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.08.23 07:07z 305 Lines 9341 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4641_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-AUG23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<VE3CGR<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 230815/0600Z 4641@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648
WW 648 SEVERE TSTM NC VA 150255Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1055 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS, MAY CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND/OR
REDEVELOP TO THE EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLUEFIELD WV TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ROANOKE VA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 647...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647
WW 647 SEVERE TSTM AL GA NC TN VA 150035Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS AL TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BRISTOL TN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
26025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0648 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0648 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0647 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MSL TO
10 SW TYS TO 50 SE LOZ.
..KERR..08/15/23
ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...GSP...MRX...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 647
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-059-071-079-083-089-095-103-150440-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB FRANKLIN JACKSON
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARSHALL MORGAN
GAC047-083-111-123-213-241-281-291-295-313-150440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATOOSA DADE FANNIN
GILMER MURRAY RABUN
TOWNS UNION WALKER
WHITFIELD
NCC011-021-039-043-075-087-099-113-115-121-173-199-150440-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1997
MD 1997 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150224Z - 150500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2 AM EDT, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...DUE TO INITIALLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST NAM, IN PARTICULAR, SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AIDED BY NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THIS IS FORECAST AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, BEGINS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COINCIDING
WITH STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW (30-40 KT IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER), INCLUDING ENLARGING CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NEAR/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAIN THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LOWER/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INCLUDING NEAR THE SURFACE, MAY REMAIN
WEAK. HOWEVER, SEASONABLY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S F MAY
COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO, IN
ADDITION TO THE THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR/GUYER.. 08/15/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36078169 37767877 36707863 35228073 35288176 36078169
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 15, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2023
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY/EASTERN TENNESSEE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA, EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
...EASTERN KENTUCKY/EASTERN TENNESSEE VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA...
A RATHER ILL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VICINITY -- TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WHILE LOCAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS REGION THIS EVENING, THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM RISK IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN TENNESSEE VICINITY, WHERE
NEWLY ISSUED WW 647 IS NOW IN EFFECT. HERE, ONGOING STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW INSTANCES
OF HAIL NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA WILL PERSIST/SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE, AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA VICINITY AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LONG ISLAND
LATER IN THE PERIOD, AN UPTICK IN SEVERE-WEATHER RISK -- INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO -- REMAINS EVIDENT.
..GOSS.. 08/15/2023
READ MORE
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