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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.08.23 06:30z 223 Lines 6917 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4799_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-AUG23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230817/0600Z 4799@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652
WW 652 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 162255Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF DULUTH MN TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF IRONWOOD MI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0652 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MSP TO
60 S DLH TO 30 WSW ASX TO 10 NNE ASX TO 45 NE GNA.
..LYONS..08/17/23
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC003-005-007-013-017-033-035-051-095-099-107-109-113-129-
170240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BURNETT CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE IRON POLK
PRICE RUSK ST. CROIX
SAWYER WASHBURN
LSZ121-148-150-170240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS BEYOND 5 NM FROM MAINLAND
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2008
MD 2008 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652...
VALID 170252Z - 170445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED
AND MARGINAL BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM DULUTH
SHOWS AN MCS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MCS CONSISTS OF
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MOST NOTABLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ALONG AND
NEAR AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP IS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KNOTS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL TOWARD MIDNIGHT, AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 08/17/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45739173 45269226 44839230 44469182 44459097 45159007
45688945 46168952 46439027 46259107 45739173
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 17, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2023
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WISCONSIN. EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL
PORTION OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...
A BAND OF VIGOROUS/FAST-MOVING, AND LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS
MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
VICINITY AT THIS TIME, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND
PARENT/DIGGING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. NEW CONVECTION IS ALSO
INITIATING AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND MAY BECOME
STRONG/SEVERE INTO THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
LATER THIS EVENING, STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY,
AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. UNTIL THEN, AIDED BY
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG/WEAKLY VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE MID TROPOSPHERE, RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO -- WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
...COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA...
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS TIME NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LINGERING OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE A
GENERAL, DIURNAL WANE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST HOURS, LOCAL RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ISOLATED, STRONGER CORES.
..GOSS.. 08/17/2023
READ MORE
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