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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.08.23 07:07z 390 Lines 11826 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5728_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-AUG23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230825/0631Z 5728@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657
WW 657 SEVERE TSTM IN OH PA LE 250150Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
LAKE ERIE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH A RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AT TIMES. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE IN TO 25 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLIN PA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 655...WW 656...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30035.
...HART
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0657 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..08/25/23
ATTN...WFO...IWX...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC003-033-087-113-151-250340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN DE KALB LAGRANGE
NOBLE STEUBEN
OHC003-005-007-019-029-031-033-035-039-043-051-055-063-069-075-
077-083-085-093-095-099-101-103-117-123-125-133-137-139-143-147-
151-153-155-157-161-169-171-173-175-250340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ASHLAND ASHTABULA
CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON
CRAWFORD CUYAHOGA DEFIANCE
ERIE FULTON GEAUGA
HANCOCK HENRY HOLMES
HURON KNOX LAKE
LORAIN LUCAS MAHONING
MARION MEDINA MORROW
OTTAWA PAULDING PORTAGE
PUTNAM RICHLAND SANDUSKY
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0656 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBN
TO 20 WSW JXN TO 20 NNW ARB TO 10 ENE FNT TO 35 S BAX TO 20 N MTC
TO 40 ENE MTC.
..THORNTON..08/25/23
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...IWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC023-059-075-087-091-099-115-125-161-163-250340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH HILLSDALE JACKSON
LAPEER LENAWEE MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND WASHTENAW
WAYNE
LCZ423-460-LEZ444-250340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0655 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW JVL
TO 35 NW BEH.
..THORNTON..08/25/23
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-097-111-250240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE LAKE MCHENRY
LMZ740-777-250240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0654 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DIK TO
30 WNW N60 TO 35 NE MOT.
..SPC..08/24/23
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC005-009-019-025-027-031-049-055-057-065-069-071-079-083-095-
101-103-250040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENSON BOTTINEAU CAVALIER
DUNN EDDY FOSTER
MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER
OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY
ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER
WARD WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2043
MD 2043 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... FOR NORTHERN
OH...NORTHWEST PA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH...NORTHWEST PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...
VALID 250342Z - 250545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE AS IT SURGES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHERN OH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50-60KT.
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SOUTHERN ON/LAKE ERIE
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MATURE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS NOW FORMING AN
MCV ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE, ABOUT 50MI NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF CLE. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, THIS MCS HAS PRODUCED MEASURED
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI (54KT AT KDET).
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST SURGE IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
NEAR 50KT AND WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
(CLEVELAND METRO) BY 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 08/25/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 41838524 42467984 41007987 40388525 41838524
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 25, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2023
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN,
NORTHEAST OHIO AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH, ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM,
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A PROGRESSIVE LINE SEGMENT THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE LINEAR MCS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN,
LAKE ERIE, NORTHEAST OHIO AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCS. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT DETROIT
HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 45 KNOTS, WITH VEERED WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS, AND SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S F WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE MCS. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID EVENING ALSO HAVE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 200 AND 250 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
EXIST WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, AND WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, THE RAP IS SHOWING MLCAPE
IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD A MOIST AXIS THIS EVENING, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, WITH 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 800 MB AND 50 KNOTS OF
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND ROTATING
STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 08/25/2023
READ MORE
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