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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.09.23 07:01z 125 Lines 4394 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6117_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-SEP23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<KE6CHO<LU9DCE
Sent: 230901/0630Z 6117@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 1 02:44:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 1 02:44:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 2073
MD 2073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010242Z - 010515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS (60-70 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE LATE EVENING (05 UTC) AS AN ORGANIZED
LINEAR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST. UPON
COORDINATION WITH NWS PHOENIX, A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED DUE PRIMARILY TO THE SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
NATURE OF THE SEVERE-WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINEAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN AZ MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SONORAN DESERT
THIS EVENING. THE 22 UTC 1Y7 (YUMA) RAOB DID SAMPLE THE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY RESERVOIR THAT INCREASES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN AZ. THE 00 UTC TUCSON AND PHOENIX RAOBS SHOWED VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
HAS ABATED, HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEG F
NORTHWEST OF THE ONGOING STORMS AS OF 0240 UTC. THE PINAL AIRPORT
AWOS (KMZJ) RECENTLY MEASURED A 50-KT GUST AT 0150 UTC WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
THE KIWA VAD (PHOENIX 88D) HAS SHOWN A STRENGTHENING IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 500 MB (LESS THAN 5 KT TO 30-35 KT). THIS
ENHANCEMENT IN MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS OBSERVED SUBTLY ON THE KEMX VAD
(TUCSON 88D) AND THE 00 UTC TUCSON RAOB. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED
CHARACTER OF THE LINEAR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER, EXPECTING THE ENHANCED
BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION TO AID IN THIS
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE GREATER PHOENIX VICINITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WILL PROBABLY BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE GUSTS (60-70 MPH).
..SMITH/GRAMS.. 09/01/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 32251308 32801359 33291358 33711323 33861275 33891207
33631153 33111109 32971123 32901185 32641243 32321276
32251308
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 1, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2023
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING.
...01Z UPDATE...
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IS ALLOWING HIGHER PW AIR MASS TO
ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CA/NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING, COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES, HAVE AIDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AZ. MORE RECENTLY,
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE EVOLVED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN AZ LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ASSIST CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
WELL PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT. GREATEST RISK FOR
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRIOR TO BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WHEN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST.
..DARROW.. 09/01/2023
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