| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 24.10.23 09:26z 131 Lines 4737 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9238_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-OCT23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 231024/0731Z 9238@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE OCT 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023.
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC MD 2256
MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240227Z - 240530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL (1.5-2 IN.). A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SUBTLE SIGNS OF LIFT ARE EVIDENT IN PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IOWA ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE KOAX VAD IS
SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL JET AT AROUND 40 KTS ALREADY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LIFT ALONG A WARM
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT POTENTIALLY SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE 00Z OBSERVED
OAX SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH MORE
MUTED, THESE LAPSE RATES ALSO EXTEND INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA PER THIS
EVENINGS DVN/MPX SOUNDINGS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT LONG HODOGRAPHS AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
(1.5-2 IN.). CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
..WENDT.. 10/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635
41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145
44049223
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
SPC OCT 24, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2023
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND
EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AS AN ELONGATED WARM AIR CONVEYOR
BELT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ARCING NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
...IA/MN/WI...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RICHER
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN IA/EASTERN NE. THE 00Z OMAHA RAOB
FEATURED 8 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY.
THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND FOCUS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM-AIR ADVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. RECENT TIME-LAGGED HRRR MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST AND
NEAR THE MO RIVER BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
FAVOR A WEST-EAST CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHERN MN. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION, HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL 15-PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY (SLIGHT RISK).
...RIO GRANDE/WESTERN PART OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...
THE 00Z DEL RIO RAOB SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, INDICATIVE OF MOISTURE VIA DECAYED TC REMNANTS.
DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING AND WEAK UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG UPDRAFT COULD
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION AS SOUTHERLY 850-MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THE RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE
LIMITED BY OVERALL WEAK BUOYANCY/LAPSE RATES.
..SMITH.. 10/24/2023
READ MORE
=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=#=
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
HYPERTEXT PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 3
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
