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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.11.23 17:01z 106 Lines 3679 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9643_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-NOV23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 231101/1601Z 9643@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED NOV 1 11:53:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED NOV 1 11:53:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED NOV 1 11:53:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED NOV 1 11:53:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC NOV 1, 2023 1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1300Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CDT WED NOV 01 2023
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO OVERLAND THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE FORECAST TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH ITS AMPLITUDE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT, DUE TO
THE EJECTION/WEAKENING OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STATES, BEFORE A DAY-2 TROUGH'S MOVING
ASHORE. FOLLOWING A MAJOR LOW-LEVEL COLD-FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS AND GULF, AND WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT IN THE WEST AS WELL, THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS.
..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2023
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 1, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT WED NOV 01 2023
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PATTERN EVOLUTION WHICH
COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY THROUGH MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC AND UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION WHILE
CROSSING THE U.S.
LATEST OUTPUT, INCLUDING THE ECENS/ECMWF AND GEFS, HAS TRENDED
FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO) WITH AN INITIAL
PERTURBATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE ALSO
FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH, ALONG A STALLING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. WHILE IT
DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIFT
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION, IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN THE
WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD INTRUSION THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR.
SPREAD IS LARGER AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS CONCERNING RENEWED
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BARRING MORE
SUBSTANTIVE AMPLIFICATION THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IS MOST
PROBABLE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MIGHT STILL NOT SUPPORT MORE
THAN VERY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
READ MORE
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