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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.11.23 08:47z 76 Lines 2717 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2522_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-NOV23
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<KE6CHO<LU9DCE
Sent: 231122/0800Z 2522@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED NOV 22 02:43:02 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED NOV 22 02:43:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED NOV 22 02:43:02 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED NOV 22 02:43:02 UTC 2023.
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SPC NOV 22, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST TUE NOV 21 2023
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO, MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT.
...01Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARDS NORTHWEST AR.
THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE
MID-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. 500MB FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW EVOLVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE APPALACHIANS THEN TRACKING TOWARD THE DELMARVA BY
SUNRISE. AS A RESULT, BOUNDARY-LAYER MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LLJ SHIFTS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
NET RESULT WILL BE MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SUCH THAT A FEW
ROBUST STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A
NARROW BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE-SOUTHEAST AL-CENTRAL GA-NORTHWEST SC. THIS REFLECTS
SOMEWHAT STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING THAT WILL SHIFT EAST BY
22/12Z. CURRENT THINKING IS SIMILAR TO EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. UPDRAFT
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE SLGT RISK THIS EVENING
AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM.
..DARROW.. 11/22/2023
READ MORE
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