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LU9DCE > NEWS 12.08.26 16:20z 710 Lines 26463 Bytes #180 (0) @ WW
BID : 19710_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260812/1615Z 19710@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573
WW 573 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 120720Z - 121500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 220 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED AND COMPACT SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE WATCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING.
SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ONEILL NE TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES IA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 572...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29040.
...SMITH
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572
WW 572 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 120320Z - 121100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1020 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A SUPERCELL,
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AMPLE BUOYANCY EXISTS
ACROSS THIS REGION, SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH. PRIMARY RISK IS STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 75 MPH. LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL,
WITH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF VERY LARGE HAIL (I.E. 2" IN
DIAMETER) POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VALENTINE NE TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ONEILL NE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 570...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28035.
...MOSIER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0573 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BUB
TO 45 ESE BUB TO 30 ESE ONL TO 30 NE ONL.
..KERR..08/12/26
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...FSD...LBF...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-053-071-073-077-085-121-
129-133-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-120940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON
BOONE CARROLL CASS
CLARKE CRAWFORD DALLAS
DECATUR FREMONT GREENE
GUTHRIE HARRISON MADISON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE
RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR
UNION WARREN
NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-055-077-093-107-
109-119-121-125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-177-179-
120940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0572 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ONL TO
35 NNW ONL TO 35 NE ONL.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 11Z.
..KERR..08/12/26
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC015-089-120940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD HOLT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0570 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE JMS TO
55 ESE BIS TO 45 E BIS.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 12/06Z.
..KERR..08/12/26
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC003-043-045-047-073-081-093-120600-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN RANSOM SARGENT
STUTSMAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 12 08:39:07 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 12 08:39:07 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 12, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
...IA TO OH VALLEY...
ONE OR MORE MCSS MIGRATING THROUGH ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AMID A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD TN. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS
OR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD BE ONGOING OVER IA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD (12Z), WITH WARM ADVECTION STORMS ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF
IL/IN. THE EARLY DAY WARM ADVECTION STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, WHILE THE IA MCS DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THAT IS NOT YET APPARENT IS UNCERTAIN, AND HOW OUTFLOW
MAY INFLUENCE HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL RISK THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, INCREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS NE INTO
NORTHERN KS. NEAR-60 F DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN CO/WY/MT. MODEST MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 30+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INITIAL CELLS WILL
POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE REGION AS
OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAY LARGELY LIMIT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD KS/SOUTHERN
NE. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
...LOWER MI INTO NY/PA/NJ...
A BELT OF STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER
MI INTO NY/PA TODAY. A SEASONALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER 35+ KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES, WHILE HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY ELONGATED. MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITHIN A VERY MOIST
AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK, BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONGER
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.
..LEITMAN/MOORE.. 08/12/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 12, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS. TO THE EAST OF BUILDING RIDGE, A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY, AND THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN
MO. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE WITHIN THE RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. GENERALLY MODEST AND
FRONT-PARALLEL MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT OR GENERALLY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MODESTLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
HAIL.
...CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, MOIST EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MODEST, BUT
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS REGION.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HOT AND WELL-MIXED REGIME NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION IN THIS
REGIME, BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS.
...NORTHEAST...
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, AND
GENERALLY MODEST MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE
WILL BE SOME DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
MORE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...SOUTHEAST...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/SC ON
THURSDAY, WITHIN A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE VARIES
REGARDING THE EXTENT TO WHICH EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND RELATED
OUTFLOW MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, AND THE INFLUENCE ANY
SUCH CONVECTION/OUTFLOW WOULD HAVE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION LATER IN THE DAY. IN GENERAL, DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK, BUT THE VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOW, BUT IF TRENDS SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT MCVS EMANATING FROM UPSTREAM, THEN
WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PART OF THIS
REGION.
...GREAT BASIN...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST, BUT FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT,
BUT WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL.
..DEAN.. 08/12/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 12, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY,
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. A SEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT INITIALLY EXTENDS GENERALLY EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TOWARD
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY MAY TEND TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD, THOUGH ITS POSITION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
ANTECEDENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION.
...MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE, BUT MODERATE TO STRONG MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST EARLY-DAY
STORMS.
EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT AND ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
DAY REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN CAPPED ALONG
AND TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING, WITHIN A MODEST
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY
NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...
SIMILAR TO D2/THURSDAY, MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT, BUT CELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME MODEST OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERING POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND POSE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
...CAROLINAS/VA...
MODEST MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE VARIES
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 08/12/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 12, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/SATURDAY...
MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS ONE OR MORE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA CRESTING
THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION. THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FAVORED CORRIDOR PRECLUDES ADDITION OF 15%
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...D5/SUNDAY...
EXTENDED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL IMPINGE UPON A
RESERVOIR OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BUOYANCY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SUBSTANTIAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE
FRONT, BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
SCENARIO.
...D6/MONDAY - D7/TUESDAY...
A SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, WITH LOW-PREDICTABILITY MCS POTENTIAL.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS A
BROADER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC, FALLING H500 HEIGHTS AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WA, THE ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN MT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND MORE EXPANSIVE MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
KS/CO.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY 20 MPH AT TIMES)
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING PEAK HEATING WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW AFTERNOON
RH, WITH INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM WHERE RH BELOW 10 PERCENT IS
POSSIBLE. FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY, WITH ERC VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE
97-99TH PERCENTILES UNDER MULTIPLE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, CURING FINE FUELS. EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD GIVEN LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER
MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WA, ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MT THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER RAIN CORES WITH
PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.00". HOWEVER, FUELS SHOULD REMAIN RECEPTIVE TO
POTENTIAL IGNITIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE HEAVIER CORES. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN, IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST STORM TRAJECTORIES AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER INTO WA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND SUPPORT A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN OF IDAHO...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV, FAR SOUTHERN OR AND THE UPPER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN ID. WEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH COMBINED WITH
RH LOCALLY BELOW 10 PERCENT AMID VERY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE
EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NV AND ADJACENT OR/ID AREAS.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE
UPPER RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CA/NV WILL BRING A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF FRINGE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS WILL
MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO D2/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH AMID LOW RH AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WESTERN OK AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A DIFFUSE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KS. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ATOP A WELL
MIXED AND DRY SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE,
NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RECEPTIVE FUELS WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE
RANGE AND CURED FINE FUELS COULD PROMOTE A FEW IGNITIONS OUTSIDE OF
HEAVIER RAIN CORES FROM THESE INITIALLY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1500 J/KG OR GREATER WILL EVOLVE AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 100S F YET AGAIN, INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IMPACTING ANY POTENTIAL IGNITIONS/NEW
FIRE STARTS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS TO
COVER THIS THREAT.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY,
INTERACTING WITH MORE DIFFUSE MONSOON MOISTURE WHERE PWATS IN THE
0.6-0.9" RANGE SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR, FAR NORTHWESTERN NV AND
SOUTHWESTERN ID. NEW IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE MORE INTENSE
RAIN CORES WITH ERCS STILL IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE. ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHEASTWARD STORM TRAJECTORIES UP TO 30 MPH WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING IGNITION POTENTIAL
OVER DRY FUELS. SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THESE HIGHLIGHTED
AREAS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BUT LARGELY REMAIN INTACT.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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