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LU9DCE > NEWS 15.08.26 16:30z 362 Lines 14201 Bytes #185 (0) @ WW
BID : 19906_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260815/1615Z 19906@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 15 07:56:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 15 07:56:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 15 07:56:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 15 07:56:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC AUG 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS.
...MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
AT MID-LEVELS TODAY, A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. IN THE MORNING, A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS COMPLEX, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND MOIST AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, ALONG WHICH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A NEW COMPLEX OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN OHIO INTO THE VIRGINIAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL
FORCING.
MODEL FORECASTS IN THE MOIST AIR SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE WILL PEAK IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE IN MOST AREAS. NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WET DOWNBURSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT BECOME SUSTAINED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS
WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM EASTERN
COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35
KNOTS WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL
LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL, WHILE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..BROYLES/LYONS.. 08/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 15, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...MIDWEST TO MID-ATLANTIC...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES/MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WITHIN BROAD, MODESTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY BE
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
ONGOING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ AND
THE DELMARVA VICINITY. THIS POSES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH, STRONGER HEATING IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE/MCV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE. SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY, A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK, BUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
NEAR/GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
...HIGH PLAINS...
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ON SUNDAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
AID IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 15, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
ON MONDAY, WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (50S TO LOW 60S F) IS FORECAST AHEAD
OF A SOUTHWESTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES,
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUGGEST ORGANIZED
ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, IN ADDITIONAL TO
SPORADIC STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. AREAS OF
STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST, BUT STRONG INSTABILITY
AMID STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURST WINDS AND CONVECTION
SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 15, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/TUE - NE/IA AND VICINITY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST WILL DEEPEN ON TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION OF CLOUD DEBRIS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS, POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE
WITH TIME ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. INITIALLY, A LARGE HAIL RISK
COULD TRANSITION TOWARD MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK, PARTICULARLY
IF UPSCALE GROWTH DOES OCCUR AS STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.
...DAYS 5-8...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. A SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
COULD EMERGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN RESPONSE, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
LOW-LEVEL WINDS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT, LIMITING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ORGANIZED RISK.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
BUILDING RAPIDLY WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AND A BELT OF
MONSOON MOISTURE. UNDER THE RIDGE, EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL US SUPPORTING LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS AND AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
...NORTHWEST...
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE, WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL OR AND THE WA CASCADES BEFORE
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE SEVERAL PRIOR DAYS
OF RAINFALL, SOME FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE. NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH,
FASTER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS (25-30 MPH FORWARD MOTIONS), ARE
EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL SUPPORTING SOME DRIER STORMS.
TO THE EAST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR INTO ID, A MIX OF WET/DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWER STORM SPEEDS. FUELS HERE ARE ALSO NOT
AS RECEPTIVE WITHIN A BROADER SWATH OF OBSERVED WETTING RAIN.
HOWEVER, GREATER STORM COVERAGE SHOULD FAVOR INCREASED LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL. SOME DRIER STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER
PRECIP CORES, SUPPORTING SOME RISK FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS IN THE
REMAINING DRY FUELS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 100S F AND RH FALLING TO AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT
WILL OVERLAP WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND RECENT NOTABLE FIRE ACTIVITY. A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE, NORTHWEST OK INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS.
..LYONS.. 08/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN SUNDAY AS
THE WESTERN US TROUGH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE STALLED FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ARES OF VERY
DRY FUELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. WHILE SOME RISK FOR
STRIKES IS POSSIBLE, SLOW STORM SPEEDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DRY STORMS.
...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SEVERAL
DAYS OF PRECEDING STORMS WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE DRY FUELS.
ADDITIONALLY, SLOWER STORM SPEEDS WILL FAVOR A WETTER STORM MODE
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL WETTING RAINS. THIS WILL
LIMIT IGNITION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, SPORADIC STRIKES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITHIN LOCALLY MORE RECEPTIVE FUELS FROM EASTERN OR/WA INTO
PARTS OF ID.
..LYONS.. 08/15/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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