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LU9DCE > NEWS 19.08.26 16:30z 501 Lines 18169 Bytes #190 (0) @ WW
BID : 20277_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260819/1615Z 20277@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598
WW 598 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 190300Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE POSING SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF TOPEKA
KS TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MO. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
30030.
...GLEASON
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0598 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E MHK TO
15 NE FLV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
..BUNTING..08/19/26
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC087-091-103-107-121-209-190840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE
MOC013-037-047-083-095-101-107-165-190840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CASS CLAY
HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE PLATTE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 2037
MD 2037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598... FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598...
VALID 190823Z - 190930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND THE
SCHEDULED 09Z/4 AM CDT EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598,
HOWEVER A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN A GENERALLY EAST-WEST
ORIENTED ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO AT
0815Z, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPANDING ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. DESPITE EPISODIC STRONGER UPDRAFTS, A TREND TOWARDS
DIMINISHED INTENSITIES HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE 07Z AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING TAKES PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK-POCKETS
OF MODERATE MUCAPE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFT AND A LOCALIZED RISK
FOR STRONG WINDS OR HAIL. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND A NEW WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER
THE EXPIRATION OF WW 598 AT 09Z.
ACROSS CENTRAL MO, THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS ALSO DECREASED AS
STORMS MOVE TOWARDS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY, AND THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
..BUNTING/MOSIER.. 08/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39289563 39209362 38819250 38269145 37889131 37609157
37739244 38369367 38649499 39139553 39289563
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND IN THE SOUTHEAST.
...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S F. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT IMPACTED BY
MORNING OUTFLOW. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES FOCUSED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED. FROM THIS CONVECTION,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI. ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING.
EARLY EVENING RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI,
WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. MLCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST
INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING, WITH STORMS THAT ARE MAINTAINED BY A
LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
...GREAT PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AHEAD OF THESE STORMS,
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, AND SURFACE-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS.
...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA,
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WARM, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL SUPPORT AND ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S F. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. THE DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 08/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 19, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC, FROM NEBRASKA INTO WISCONSIN, AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH.
...FROM NE INTO NORTHWEST WI...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH 30-40 KT AT 500 MB COMMON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST EAST OF THIS AREA, POCKETS OF 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THUS SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FROM
NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI INTO NE. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT ALONG WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR 2.00" CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NE, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THAN FORECAST INSTABILITY.
...MID ATLANTIC...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PA/CENTRAL NJ, WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN VA/NORTHEAST NC WITH A INCREASING
CONVERGENCE THERE. ACROSS THIS SMALL WARM SECTOR, UPPER 60S TO 70S F
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST PA/NJ INTO MD, DE, AND EASTERN
VA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NC.
20-30 KT MEAN WINDS ABOVE 700 MB WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CELLS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL.
...MID SOUTH...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE RED RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS AR
AND INTO NORTHERN MS, WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF
STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER NORTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST TN. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.00". SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, POSSIBLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
..JEWELL.. 08/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 19, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS, SOME WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA, AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO COOL
ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH -10 C AT 500 MB PUSHING SOUTH TO I-70 BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG AND HEATING AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NE AND
SURROUNDING AREAS.
WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL IS HIGH WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
OVER 50 KT. STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST SD INTO NORTHWEST NE, AND PROCEED SOUTHEASTWARD. SWATHS OF
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND ARE FORECAST.
...CAROLINAS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS, WITH 20 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NC, WITH LOW PRESSURE INTO
SC AN GA. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD STRONG
INSTABILITY, WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS STORMS MAY OCCUR, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW
WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 08/19/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 19, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SAT/D4 TO WED/D8 PERIOD, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON SAT/D4 INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MON/D6, WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS GENERALLY
PERSISTING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE EAST ON SAT/D4, WITH AREAS OF STORMS PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTS, PERHAPS MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE. BY SUN/D5, STRONG
WINDS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, THOUGH ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE WARM
SECTOR, AS WILL VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. FRONTAL TIMING WILL DEPEND
ON THE UPPER TROUGH SPEED, AND OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR
SUN/D5.
TO THE WEST, DAILY CORRIDORS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
STRONGEST ON SAT/D4 AND WEAKENING INTO D5/D6. AT LEAST MARGINAL
RISK/LOW PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND FARTHER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY,
SUPPORTING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AMID GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS.
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, BUT RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, AND PROGRESSION WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ACROSS KANSAS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, A
DEEPLY MIXED PROFILE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 100S F AND RH VALUES OF 15-20% AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PROMOTING
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AMID A DROUGHT STRESSED
FUELSCAPE.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS ON
DAY 2/THURSDAY, WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE YIELDING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER A DROUGHT-STRESSED ENVIRONMENT
IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, DELIVERING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR WEST.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST,
USHERING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHERN
OREGON, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 90-100 F OR
GREATER AMID 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RH
VALUES OF 10-15%. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL OVERLAP A
RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE, PROMOTING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. RH
VALUES OF 15-20% AND 10-20 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OVERLAP
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA; HOWEVER, RECENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS, PRECLUDING THE EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/19/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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