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LU9DCE > NEWS 20.08.26 16:30z 569 Lines 19650 Bytes #191 (0) @ WW
BID : 20363_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260820/1615Z 20363@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603
WW 603 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 200510Z - 201100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1210 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE, AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO RISK.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF FORT CAMPBELL KY TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601...WW 602...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602
WW 602 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 200245Z - 200800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD, WITH A CLUSTERING OF
STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WEST
PLAINS MO TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MO. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0603 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W HOP TO
20 ENE CKV TO 25 ENE BWG.
..BUNTING..08/20/26
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-213-227-200940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN SIMPSON WARREN
TNC021-037-043-083-085-125-147-161-165-169-187-189-200940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEATHAM DAVIDSON DICKSON
HOUSTON HUMPHREYS MONTGOMERY
ROBERTSON STEWART SUMNER
TROUSDALE WILLIAMSON WILSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0602 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ARG
TO 25 E FAM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
..BUNTING..08/20/26
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-200840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-200840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON
MASSAC POPE PULASKI
UNION
KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-157-177-
219-221-200840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU AUG 20 08:56:11 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU AUG 20 08:56:11 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS
FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
...MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THIS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA, A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, NORTHERN MD
INTO NJ AND SOUTHERN NY.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F)
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. DESPITE POOR LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A
TRAILING LEE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN VA. ONGOING STORMS FROM A REMNANT
MORNING CLUSTER MAY REINTENSIFY AS THEY CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL, POSSIBLY DISCRETE,
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN PA AND NORTHERN MD NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE
MORNING. 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SUPPORT A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE. ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
NEAR THE FRONT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY MORE ROBUST QLCS SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY BY MID
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND AIDE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MN AND SD, AND FARTHER SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL NE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES, WITH
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALOFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. SOME
SIGNIFICANT HAIL (GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN RISK AREA GIVEN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND NORTHERN KS IF CLUSTERING CAN OCCUR.
...SOUTHEAST...
SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND TN VALLEY, A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY
FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA AND
WESTERN MS AND NEAR A WEAK MCV ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WITH
PWATS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES, SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...AZ...
STRONG HEATING BENEATH A PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
F) WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AMID MODEST EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. A FEW HIGH-BASED CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE, INITIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BEFORE EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE GUSTS GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES.
..LYONS/THORNTON.. 08/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 20, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED DAMAGING HAIL (SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER) AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS, SOME WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
...NE INTO NORTHERN KS...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS FEATURING 50 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN NE, WITH CELLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF
STORMS/OUTFLOWS MERGE, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN KS DURING
THE EVENING. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT LEAST
SCATTERED CELLS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH HIGH CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.
...CAROLINAS...GA...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NC. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z, WITHIN A WEAK
SHEAR/STRONG INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
3000 J/KG, SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND LOCALLY SEVERE
MICROBURSTS AND OUTFLOWS.
..JEWELL.. 08/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 20, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND GUSTS FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
...UPPER OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH A 50 KT BACKSIDE SPEED MAX IN THE MIDLEVELS FROM MN
INTO IL. WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER EAST, COOLING
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS LOWER MI, IN AND OH DURING THE DAY, WITH A PLUME OF
1500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING. THIS WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 30 KT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL.
...PARTS OF EASTERN WA...ID...WESTERN MT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, WITH
A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH
COOLING ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES,
RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN ID AND INTO WESTERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT CELLS WITH MARGINAL HAIL, AS WELL AS CORRIDORS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 08/20/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 20, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUN/D4 INTO
MON/D5, WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE ON MON/D5 AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH ONGOING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCE PREDICTABILITY AS FAR AS HOW UNSTABLE
IT WILL BECOME ON SUN/D4. ALSO MITIGATING OVERALL SEVERE RISK
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS, WITH 10-20 KT
AT 850 MB. THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN THE COMING DAYS.
TO THE WEST, LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS A SMALL BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATOP THE
UPPER RIDGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
COMBINED WITH A LEE TROUGH AND RIBBON OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND ACTIVITY, PERHAPS FROM EASTERN
MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
ADDITIONAL STORM POTENTIAL, GENERALLY LOW-END, WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUE/D6 INTO WED/D7 OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES, THOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW IN FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN
WAVE, WHICH MAY BEGIN PHASING WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER
ONTARIO.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY, WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE YIELDING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER A DROUGHT-STRESSED ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, DELIVERING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR WEST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST, USHERING STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ONLY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON DAY
2/FRIDAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX PEAKS OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OREGON, PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/EAST OF THE CASCADES. FARTHER SOUTH, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS WITHIN A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS, YIELDING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
...CENTRAL-EASTERN OREGON/WASHINGTON...
AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEARS THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTLINE, SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON VERTICAL MIXING, SOME
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (5-15% CHANCE) BEFORE BETTER
MOISTURE IS USHERED IN BY THE UPPER TROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY MAY INHIBIT SOLAR INSOLATION,
THUS LIMITING GREATER INSTABILITY. WHILE SOME TIMING DISPARITY IS
PORTRAYED IN RECENT GUIDANCE ON THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT 0.8-1.0" PWATS, 30-35 KT LCL-EL
WINDS, AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, INDICATING HIGHER RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCALIZED (OR WITHIN AREAS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS). A DROUGHT-STRESSED AND RECENTLY
RECEPTIVE FUEL ENVIRONMENT WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS; THUS, AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA WAS
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION TO CAPTURE THE EXPANSE OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHLIGHTS MAY
NEED TO BE CONFINED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS AS THE PATTERN IS BETTER
RESOLVED.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHERN
OREGON...
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON DAY 2/FRIDAY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM 90-100 F. AT
PEAK HEATING, SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH) AND 10-15% RH WILL ALLOW ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO EVOLVE WHERE FUELS HAVE GROWN INCREASINGLY MORE RECEPTIVE.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/20/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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