| |
LU9DCE > NEWS 26.08.26 16:30z 433 Lines 18602 Bytes #198 (0) @ WW
BID : 20834_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<EI2GYB<K1AJD<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260826/1615Z 20834@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 26 08:46:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED AUG 26 08:46:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 26 08:46:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED AUG 26 08:46:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DAMAGING/SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS,
THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
...LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OH...IN/IL...EASTERN MO...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO, AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF MO/IL/IN INTO LOWER MI, THOUGH EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS COULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF GENERALLY 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN BE SUSTAINED, THEN SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN IN
INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI, WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
...PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MO. IF SUBSTANTIAL EARLY-DAY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, THEN
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS/AL, WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MO
INTO AR AND EASTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN
MCV THAT MAY EMERGE FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION, AND
RELATIVELY LARGE PW AND BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNBURSTS AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
ISOLATED HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS MAINTENANCE OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTER INTO LATE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN SOME WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME
CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MAINTENANCE OF A SEVERE-WIND THREAT INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN KS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH, WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER, STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A VERY WARM
AND WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS FROM EASTERN NM INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON TRENDS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE
AND CLUSTERING WITHIN THIS REGIME, GREATER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
..DEAN/WEINMAN.. 08/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 26, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND, HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
...MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...
AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE VT/NH REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD. MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER FLOW IS EVIDENT
ABOVE 7KM ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A
PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER, A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VICINITY WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL VEERING.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 40+ KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER, RISING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE MAY KEEP
CONVECTION MOSTLY SUPPRESSED. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL 2+ INCH HAIL AND 75+ MPH WIND GUST THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 08/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 26, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL START TO DEAMPLIFY ON
FRIDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS EAST
OF THE LEE TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z GUIDANCE FOCUSES
THIS LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY WHICH CREATES
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA WITH A 5% SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY.
...NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES
MAY LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. NONETHELESS, NUMEROUS STORMS IN A VERY
MOIST, MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADDED
FOR THIS THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 08/26/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 26, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/SATURDAY - NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHT SUPPRESSION THROUGH THE DAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW, STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION, PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN, WELL EAST OF THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE,
LIMITED STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
...D5/SUNDAY - NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY/D4 AND SUNDAY/D5. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AT 00Z SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE FORCING WILL BE GREATEST.
THE GFS DRY BIAS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS HAS SEVERELY LESSENED THE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS CHALLENGE, IT IS APPARENT THAT
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING. THE GFS-PARA SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AND
THE DEEPER FORCING.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR AHEAD OF A ROBUST CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE AI-ECMWF WHICH SHOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION. HOWEVER, THE
EC-ENSEMBLE MEAN OF INSTABILITY SHOWS AT LEAST SOME TREND TOWARD THE
GEFS WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE BEST FORCING.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA RELATIVELY LATE (~06Z) WHICH MAY BE A SOMEWHAT LIMITING
FACTOR TO A GREATER THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL TIMING DISCONNECT,
COMBINED WITH SOME HINT OF LIMITED OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AND THE PRIMARY UPPER FORCING, CAST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
TO PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT IF A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
MATERIALIZES, A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE.
...D6 AND BEYOND...
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO CENTER
AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST.
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES IS RELATIVELY LOW AT
THIS RANGE, BUT SOME CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WHILE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHEASTERN CA. AN INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE GREAT BASIN. THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH. AN
EXISTING DRY AIR MASS WITH RH FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10% AND RECEPTIVE
FUELS WILL PROMOTE WILDFIRE SPREAD, WHERE SEVERAL ACTIVE FIRES ARE
PRESENT.
...COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
AN UPPER TROUGH ENCROACHING UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION, THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW
AIDED BY AN EMERGING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH FROM NORTHEASTERN CA INTO
EASTERN OR AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS BY
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND 15%.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BROAD BUT DIFFUSE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AS A MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE), A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND NORTHEAST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
TRAJECTORIES OF 25-35 MPH WITH PWATS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.8",
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD
INTO THE ID PANHANDLE AND WESTERN MT.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND 100S FARTHER INLAND AWAY
FROM COASTAL INFLUENCE. FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY, BECOMING INCREASINGLY
RECEPTIVE EACH DAY. AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
PRIMARILY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AMID RH OF 15-20% THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY D2/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN FAVORED
TERRAIN GAPS AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
AN EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S., NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE MT HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ID,
SOUTHEASTERN OR AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A ZONE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OR AND
ADJACENT CA/NV WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 MPH AT TIMES.
...SOUTHEASTERN OREGON, FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT
NEVADA...
A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL EVOLVE AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SOUTH
OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A VERY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER EMERGES THURSDAY AMID MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SERVING
TO ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RESULTANT STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS. THESE WINDS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10% AND DRY FUELS
WILL SUPPORT A RAPID FIRE SPREAD ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ALSO IMPACT EXISTING
WILDFIRES WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
...COLUMBIA BASIN, NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN....
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY. DOWNSLOPE
FLOW EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE DRYING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN
WHERE RH COULD REACH 15% IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE DRY CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL AID IN HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS OF MT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FAST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MOTIONS AND A DRY, SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION, INCREASING IGNITION POTENTIAL ATOP A DRY FUELSCAPE.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S UNDER AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION.
AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS OF
LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES, LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/26/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1
NEW DOMAIN LU9DCE.KOZOW.COM
PyCode - AI-powered coding assistant in your termina
https://pycode.kozow.com/
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
