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LU9DCE > NEWS 07.10.26 11:50z 277 Lines 9729 Bytes #188 (0) @ WW
BID : 24287_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-OCT
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<PA8F<K5DAT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 261007/1130Z 24287@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED OCT 7 08:30:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED OCT 7 08:30:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED OCT 7 08:30:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED OCT 7 08:30:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 7, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE BROAD UPPER
RIDGING OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS TODAY.
THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST, AND ENCOURAGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST, AND WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG A MOISTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE
AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL FL.
...WESTERN FL PENINSULA COASTLINE...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF, AMID A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MINIMAL MLCINH. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, LAPSE
RATES WILL BE POOR, WITH BUOYANCY DRIVEN BY THE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, CONTRIBUTING TO THIN (500-1000 J/KG) MLCAPE PROFILES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MODEST, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL VEERING
MAY YIELD SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND ASSOCIATED
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WHILE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
OFFSHORE, IT IS UNCLEAR IF TORNADIC WATERSPOUT-PRODUCING STORMS WILL
REACH THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA COAST, SO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL
BE WITHHELD FOR NOW. HOWEVER, SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WHEN MESO-BETA SCALE DETAILS REGARDING
ONSHORE SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOME CLEARER.
..SQUITIERI/WENDT.. 10/07/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 7, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF JAMES BAY AND INTO QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY, WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. A LEADING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
THE NORTH. THIS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY INTO MAINE AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AND A WIND
SHIFT/TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -25 C.
TO THE SOUTH, STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF, POSSIBLY INTO A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY EVENING PER
NHC. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN 70S F DEWPOINTS OVER FL, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES.
TO THE WEST, COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES TO -12 C WILL EXIST OVER THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH SPARSE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 30 KT, WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE WARM
ADVECTION/HEIGHT RISE REGIME.
..JEWELL.. 10/07/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 7, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY,
THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
NHC CURRENTLY FORECASTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATE THURSDAY, STRENGTHENING FURTHER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE TIMING OF AN EVENTUAL
FORWARD ACCELERATION NORTHWARD. IN ANY CASE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD (WHICH
ENDS AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING), AND AS SUCH, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
TORNADO RISK HAVE BEEN ADDED.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL BE VERY STRONG EAST OF THE STORM CENTER.
THE SURFACE AIR MASS MAY REMAIN STABLE OVER THE MAINLAND UNTIL VERY
CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF LARGER SBCAPE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST LA PRIOR TO 12Z. ONCE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INLAND, A SURGE OF MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO OVERLY ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS, SUPPORTING ROTATION IN THE STRONGER
CELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 10/07/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 7, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FOR SAT/D4, THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE (AS OF THIS WRITING) HAS BROUGHT
THE CENTER TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING HURRICANE FARTHER EAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, AND THUS THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS BEEN SHUNTED EAST. FURTHER, GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER CYCLONE AND FASTER FORWARD MOTION, THE
SLIGHT RISK HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED FARTHER NORTH/INLAND, AS IT
APPEARS THE MID 70S F DEWPOINTS MAY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AL. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EAST OF THE CENTER, AND INCREASING
MIDLEVEL WINDS (AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY) SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF THE CENTER TRACK SHIFTS.
FOR SUN/D5, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
AND TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM OUTRUNS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR, BUT AT LEAST
A LOW END CHANCE OF SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WED/D8 AS A DEVELOPING
WESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST. HOWEVER, THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH
AND DATE OF WAVE EJECTION IS LOW PREDICTABILITY.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WITH SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST
GUSTING TO NEAR 25-35 MPH OVER WI, MN, AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS.
HOWEVER, RHS WILL FAIL TO DROP BELOW 30%, WHICH ONLY REINFORCES THE
ALREADY LIMITED FUEL RECEPTIVENESS AND WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..STEARNS.. 10/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ON DAY 2/THURSDAY, THE JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC AREA BY LATE ON
DAY 2/THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD GUST UP TO 20-30 MPH, THESE STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONSTRAINED TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGARDLESS, RHS
STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 30% BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL
AGAIN PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..STEARNS.. 10/07/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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