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LU9DCE > NEWS 11.10.26 11:50z 382 Lines 14981 Bytes #194 (0) @ WW
BID : 24629_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-OCT
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<PA8F<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261011/1130Z 24629@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN OCT 11 08:21:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN OCT 11 08:21:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN OCT 11 08:21:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN OCT 11 08:21:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 11, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA, WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 70S F. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR RALEIGH
NORTHWARD TO WEST OF RICHMOND AROUND MIDDAY HAVE LONG CURVED
HODOGRAPHS, WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE 200 TO 225
M2/S2 RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
REMAIN DISCRETE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
AS THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
...DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
ARIZONA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE WARM. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM WESTERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON HAVE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THE RESULTANT STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 10/11/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 11, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO
THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHILE AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION THAT FEATURE FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
THROUGH THE LOWER-CO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THOSE DEVELOPMENTS, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE FROM THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NEIGHBORING UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
MONDAY, ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER, YIELDING A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING CYCLONE. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THAT CONVECTIVE REGIME IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MN AND WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT, AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING ONE
INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE, LARGER SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR.
...LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN AREAL INCREASE IN LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL;
HOWEVER, IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN SUFFICIENTLY
STEEPEN, THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD YIELD A
FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 58 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..MEAD.. 10/11/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 11, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND IN PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH A
DOWNSTREAM BELT OF ENHANCED, MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THAT AIRSTREAM, A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A BOUNDARY TRAILING THAT
FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST CO.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP, DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT, DRYLINE, AND LEE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY
TO AID IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS
INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES, WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING CO LOW WILL BE THE GREATEST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. TORNADO POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE STORM
COMPLEXES APPEARS POSSIBLE, AT WHICH POINT, THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.
AN AREAL EXPANSION IN LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A
ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRECEDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER INTO AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE DESTABILIZATION IN THOSE AREAS.
HOWEVER, WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG, AND ON THE CONDITION
THAT SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOP AND ARE SUSTAINED, THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD EXIST.
..MEAD.. 10/11/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC OCT 11, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. BY DAY
5/THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE BREAK-UP OF THE
LOW, WITH MUCH OF IT BEING ENVELOPED BY AN AMPLIFYING POLAR-BRANCH
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BY DAYS 6 AND 7/ FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A BROADER-SCALE
TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
...DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MS VALLEY. THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE GREATER
DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY AFTERNOON TO FOCUS MORE
ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE NO 15% CONTOUR WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THIS FORECAST, AT LEAST LEVEL-1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE SUBSEQUENT DAY 3 FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE
REMAINING LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
...DAY 5/THURSDAY...
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE OH VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY STORMS AND
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE PARTICULAR DETAILS OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN
EVOLUTION RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT.
...DAYS 6 TO 8/FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A PROMINENT SURFACE HIGH WILL
PUSH THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONG STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE INFLUX OF A DRIER,
CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CONCURRENTLY, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LARGELY MITIGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING WITHIN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE DRY, POST-FRONTAL
FLOW WILL FOSTER AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY.
...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
NORTHERLY, POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL FUNNEL INTO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ACCELERATING FROM AROUND 10-15 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 15-25 MPH (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH) BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL AID IN THE REDUCTION OF RH VALUES TO 15-25%.
WITH DRY FUELS EXISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH WILL ALLOW AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO MATERIALIZE TODAY. ADDITIONALLY,
LATEST HIGH-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED RH VALUES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LINGERING AS
LATE AS 03-05 UTC (8-10 PM PDT SUNDAY NIGHT). ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS OUTLOOK
UPDATE.
..CHALMERS.. 10/11/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2/MONDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. COMBINED WITH A REMNANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S., WHICH WILL LARGELY SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS
REGION ON MONDAY.
FARTHER EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. WHILE A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, GUSTY WINDS, AND RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BETWEEN THESE SURFACE FEATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON, POOR OVERLAP
BETWEEN ELEVATED WIND/RH CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF RECEPTIVE FUELS
PRECLUDES A BROADER FIRE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. SIMILARLY,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST, BUT
LIMITED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10-15 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED TO LARGELY TEMPER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..CHALMERS.. 10/11/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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