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LU9DCE > NEWS 02.07.26 11:00z 458 Lines 18500 Bytes #180 (0) @ WW
BID : 16853_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-JUL
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260702/1045Z 16853@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 2 08:58:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 2 08:58:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC MD 1435
MD 1435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO
INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO INTO THE SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020658Z - 020900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO AS OF 0655 UTC. MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG BUOYANCY, WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MUCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG NORTH OF GREELEY TO GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG
INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40
KT, SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STRONG MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS. THUS FAR, STORMS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING, WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD SOME CELL
INTERFERENCE. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
ISOLATED THREAT AND MAKING THE NEED FOR A WATCH UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER,
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE CONSIDERED IF TRENDS SUPPORT A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 07/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40260520 40900444 41140346 41190292 41030238 40820248
40450284 40200335 40080453 40080494 40260520
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE US WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN US. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS SOME PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF MONTANA. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MONTANA INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AMID STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KTS WILL
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. THROUGH TIME, BOUNDARY PARALLEL SHEAR AND LARGE DEW
POINT SPREADS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINATE STORMS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST WITH
TIME, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUST 75+ MPH.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN, WITH TENDENCY TO CLUSTER ALONG OUTFLOWS. CONSENSUS IS
HIGHEST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR A MORE
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVERLAPPING WITH AROUND 25-30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. STEEP
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS
WILL POSE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
...NORTHEAST...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OUT OF
QUEBEC/ONTARIO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHER WIND
PROBABILITIES AND A LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED WITH
ADDITIONAL OUTLOOK UPDATES IF A MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF WIND
POTENTIAL BECOME CLEARER.
..THORNTON/CHALMERS.. 07/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SPREAD WESTWARD ON
FRIDAY. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES. IN THE EAST, STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A
QUASI-STATIONARY/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
...BLACK HILLS VICINITY INTO MID-MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER IN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY NEBRASKA. AT THE VERY
LEAST, PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IMPACTED BY
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE POSITION OF THE OUTFLOW WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVECT UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
F DEWPOINTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED
IN MOST GUIDANCE WILL INITIATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL LIFT
OF A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. A SIMILAR THREAT FOR LARGE/VERY LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SHOULD THE
ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST REMAIN DISCRETE INTO EARLY EVENING, A
MARGINALLY GREATER TORNADO RISK WOULD EXIST. BETWEEN THESE TWO ZONES
OF CONVECTION, UPSCALE GROWTH WILL ALLOW ONE OR MORE MCS TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LEAD MCS WOULD HAVE GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH). THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RESPONSE DURING THE EVENING WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT IT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO HELP CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF IOWA LATER IN
THE EVENING.
...NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...
WITH AN MCV AND RELATED CONVECTION LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH, AN OUTFLOW/THETA-E BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THESE AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HEATING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEST
ENHANCEMENT TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DUE TO THE MCV MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST
ORGANIZATION OF A CLUSTER/LINEAR SEGMENT THAT TRAVELS EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXISTS AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE
WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 F AND 60S
F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WHERE AROUND 30 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB WILL
EXIST. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE. TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE, STORM COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FORCING. DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE.
...TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO OHIO VALLEY...
STRONG HEATING OF A MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINT AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE
4000+ J/KG MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY GREATER STORM
COVERAGE/CLUSTERING. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE EXPECTED
HAZARD.
...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MEDIUM TO HIGH IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THESE AREAS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUGGESTS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST DURING THE MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON. A BROAD MARGINAL REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD
ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCUR.
..WENDT.. 07/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 2, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS FOURTH OF JULY
(SATURDAY). THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS THAT COULD
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH AS WELL AS MARGINALLY GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAN FRIDAY,
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE A
FEW ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY OCCUR.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING IN
THE MORNING, BUT SOME CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL. A TORNADO WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN BEHIND AN OUTFLOW/FRONT COMPOSITE BOUNDARY IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AROUND 40-45 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY...
A BROAD AREA OF 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE LIKELY
CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A GREATER WIND THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE IF ANY CLUSTERS/MCS CAN DEVELOP.
..WENDT.. 07/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 2, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY LESS IN THE
WEST THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS TO PERSIST LONGER IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. IN
THE EAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY BEFORE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE
REGIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL
STAY WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONUS BEFORE FLATTENING AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS GENERALLY LOW, AT LEAST LOCALIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ANY MCVS THAT
MAY BE PRESENT. HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WHERE
GREATER SHEAR/LIFT EXISTS WITH THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, SEVERE
POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE.
...MID-ATLANTIC...
WITH THE APPROACH OF MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON SUNDAY, STORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM SATURDAY BOTH ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT AND WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
TO SATURDAY, A 15% SEVERE RISK WAS ADDED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AMID A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE WEST. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
...GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-20 MPH GUSTING 20-30 MPH AMID
MINIMUM RH OF 3-12% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS
REGION. CONTINUED POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXTENDED
BURN PERIODS AGAIN, WITH MOST AREAS HAVING 5-15 HOURS OF AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN THE ELEVATED AREA. PORTIONS
OF THE CRITICAL AREA MAY HAVE ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR NEARLY 20
HOURS, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASPEN ACRES FIRE. LARGE
SWATHS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES ARE NEAR OR SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH
ERC VALUES, WITH ERCS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE ELEVATED AREA.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW FORECAST MUCAPE
(<250 J/KG), RISING HEIGHTS, AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA WITH MORE RECEPTIVE
FUELS (ERCS > 80TH PERCENTILE).
..NAUSLAR.. 07/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...EASTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE.
HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
...GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION...
WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
AMID MINIMUM RH OF 3-12% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WHILE MORE LOCALLY CRITICAL RATHER THAN CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING, THERMAL-INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGHING, AND ENOUGH
FLOW ALOFT LED TO THE INCLUSION OF THE CRITICAL DELINEATION.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE END OF SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WHERE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE ACTIVITY HAS TRANSPIRED. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE, WITH 5-15 HOURS OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEVADA, NORTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO. FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER
PLACES WITH ERC VALUES BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES AND
HAVE HAD RAINFALL AT LEAST ONCE THIS WEEK. WHILE LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AN ISODRYT AREA IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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