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HP2DFA > STORM 20.08.26 00:05z 40 Lines 3636 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 599_HP2DFA
Subj: TROPICAL OUTLOOK CENTAL AMERICA AUG20
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<VA2RIZ<HP2DFA
Sent: 260819/2322Z 599@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
No tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days across either the North Atlantic (including the Caribbean Sea) or the Eastern Pacific basins adjacent to Central America. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms that active major storms, such as Hurricane Lala, remain thousands of miles away in the open waters of the Central Pacific, posing absolutely no threat to the mainland.
Despite the lack of organized hurricanes, the region continues to experience a deep atmospheric divide driven by local tropical waves and El Niño.
Dynamic Overview of Tropical Risks
NORTHERN ZONE (GT, SV, HN) SOUTHERN ZONE (CR, PA)
------------------------------- -------------------------------
| • Extreme Heat (Up to 42°C) | | • Severe Flash Flood Risk |
| • Active Soil Drought Blocks | | • Soil Saturation 85f 95Y|
| • Violent Convective Cells | | • Hazardous Sea Advisories |
------------------------------- -------------------------------
Regional Weather and Environmental Breakdown
1. Southern Central America: Panama & Costa Rica (High Flood & Mudslide Risk)
The southern tier of the istmo is heavily affected by deep atmospheric instability from Tropical Wave No. 35 interacting directly with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Panama: The National Civil Protection Service (SINAPROC) has issued localized safety protocols. Copious runoff from heavy afternoon downpours presents an ongoing risk for sudden urban flooding and rapid-response river surges. The highest vulnerability covers the western and Caribbean sectors, including Bocas del Toro, Colón, the Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca, and Chiriquí.
Costa Rica: The National Meteorological Institute (IMN) maintains elevated alerts due to previous rainfall totals. Mountainous soils across the Caribbean slope and the Northern Zone remain locked at 85o 95aturation, making any incremental rainfall a direct trigger for landslides and immediate river overflows.
2. Northern Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala & Honduras (Heatwaves & Drought)
Atmospheric conditions over the northern tier are heavily suppressed by high-pressure layers and wind shear anomalies amplified by El Niño, which act as a shield to rip apart organized rain cells.
El Salvador: The Ministry of Environment (MARN) is tracking severe soil desiccation caused by the third major meteorological drought period of the year. Dangerous, oppressive ambient heat is triggering extreme temperature peaks between 38°C and 42°C across coastal plains and paracentral valleys.
Guatemala: The weather authority (INSIVUMEH) confirms a 25eficit in expected historical rainfall due to a prolonged canícula (seasonal drought block). While mornings will be severely dry and hot, extreme thermal energy will detonate isolated, highly violent convective storms right at sunset along the volcanic chain, capable of dropping sudden downbursts and producing destructive 80 km/h microburst winds.
Maritime and Coastal Hazards
A Hazardous Sea Advisory is active across the entire Central American Caribbean shoreline. Accelerated easterly trade winds are driving highly unstable, choppy conditions with wave heights spiking up to 2.5 meters, forcing local port authorities to restrict artisanal fishing and small recreational navigation.
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
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