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HP2DFA > STORM 21.08.26 00:05z 37 Lines 4016 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 651_HP2DFA
Subj: TROPICAL OUTLOOK CENTAL AMERICA AUG21
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<VE3QBZ<VA2RIZ<HP2DFA
Sent: 260820/2310Z 651@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
Central America Tropical Outlook
Valid: Friday, August 21, 2026
There is no tropical cyclone formation expected over the next seven days across either the Caribbean Sea or the adjacent Pacific basin [Substantiated by Google Search]. Active major systems, such as Hurricane Lala, remain thousands of miles away in the open waters of the Central Pacific, moving westward away from the continent [Substantiated by Google Search].
Mainland Central America will instead be dominated by a strict atmospheric divide: Tropical Wave No. 36 is driving high-risk flood warnings in the south, while El Niño-induced drought continues to cause extreme heat alerts in the north.
🗺️ Dynamic Overview of Tropical Risks
NORTHERN ZONE (GT, SV, HN) SOUTHERN ZONE (CR, PA)
------------------------------- -------------------------------
| • Extreme Heat (Up to 42°C) | | • Severe Flash Flood Risk |
| • Active Soil Drought Blocks | | • Soil Saturation 90f 100Y|
| • Sunset Microburst Winds | | • Tropical Wave No. 36 Transit|
------------------------------- -------------------------------
🌧️ Regional Weather & Environmental Breakdown
1. Southern Central America: Panama & Costa Rica (High Flood & Mudslide Risk)
The southern tier of the istmo is heavily destabilized by deep moisture tracking along Tropical Wave No. 36, which is directly enhancing the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Panama: The National Civil Protection Service (SINAPROC) has issued a countrywide Prevención Notice for Heavy Rainfall and Significant Thunderstorms extended through the weekend . Saturated soils (65ٓ70across the western and Caribbean sectors (Bocas del Toro, Colón, the Ngäbe-Buglé Comarca, and Chiriquí) create a critical vulnerability for rapid urban flooding and sudden river surges. A Green Alert remains active for the Western Caribbean.
Costa Rica: The National Meteorological Institute (IMN) and the CNE maintain a high-level Orange Alert for the Northern Zone and the entire Caribbean slope [Substantiated by Google Search]. Mountainous soils in these regions are locked at 90o 100aturation . Any localized afternoon downpours tomorrow will immediately trigger severe landslides on mountain highways and river overflows.
2. Northern Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala & Honduras (Heatwaves & Drought)
Atmospheric conditions over the northern tier remain heavily suppressed by high-pressure layers and dry air masses amplified by El Niño, which act as a shield to rip apart incoming tropical waves.
El Salvador: MARN has issued a special update confirming 14 consecutive dry days since the start of this current meteorological drought period [Substantiated by Google Search]. Dangerous, oppressive ambient heat will peak tomorrow, driving maximum temperatures between 38°C and 42°C across coastal plains and paracentral valleys.
Guatemala: The weather authority (INSIVUMEH) reports a persistent 25umulative rainfall deficit due to the prolonged canícula (seasonal drought block). While daytime conditions will remain dry and scorching, extreme thermal energy will detonate isolated, highly violent convective storms right at sunset along the volcanic chain, capable of producing destructive 80 km/h microburst winds and sudden downbursts.
⛵ Maritime and Coastal Hazards
A Hazardous Sea Advisory remains active across the entire Central American Caribbean shoreline . Strong easterly trade winds are generating choppy, unstable conditions with wave heights spiking up to 2.5 meters (8 feet) [Substantiated by Google Search]. Local port authorities are keeping restrictions in place for artisanal fishing and small recreational vessels.
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
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