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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.08.25 07:45z 257 Lines 8173 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8444_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-AUG
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 250809/0730Z 8444@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578
WW 578 SEVERE TSTM IA MN SD WI LS 090235Z - 090900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
MINNESOTA
FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
MID/LATE-EVENING INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND POSSIBLY FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA,
BEFORE MOVING INTO EAST/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE
MOST COMMON HAZARD. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELY
MN TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24025.
...GUYER
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0578 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/09/25
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC059-119-141-143-167-090440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA SIOUX
MNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033-
035-037-041-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-079-081-083-
085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129-
133-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-165-171-173-
090440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BECKER
BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE
BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON
CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO CLEARWATER COTTONWOOD
CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS
GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD
ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON
READ MORE
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SPC MD 1906
MD 1906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KANSAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 090345Z - 090545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE LOCALLY SEVERE WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTION WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME
INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500MB
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN CO INTO SOUTHERN NE. WHILE
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE LIKELY CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION, FRONTAL
LIFT AND COOLING 700MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..DARROW/GUYER.. 08/09/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 9, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2025
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD
INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN
NE...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/NORTHWEST WI...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING FROM THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN, AS A SEASONABLY
DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
IMPINGE UPON A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD
EVOLVE INITIALLY WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK
TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR LINEAR MODE. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ANAFRONTAL WITH TIME.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST RELATIVE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN, ALONG A
DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATE TIMING AND THE EFFECTS OF
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE-WIND THREAT, BUT A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME FROM SOUTHWEST SD INTO WESTERN NE,
THOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WOULD
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELLS, WITH LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SOME RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS IF STORMS DEVELOP.
A NEBULOUS BUT POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ALSO REMAINS
EVIDENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NE INTO NORTHERN IA, WITHIN A
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG ELEVATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH
SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ANY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERING COULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY GREATER DAMAGING-WIND THREAT.
...NORTHERN LOWER MI...
A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MI, BEFORE CONVECTION WANES LATER TONIGHT AS CINH INCREASES.
STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODERATE BUOYANCY, AND AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR (AS NOTED ON THE 00Z APX SOUNDING) COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WITH
TIME.
..DEAN.. 08/09/2025
READ MORE
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