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LU9DCE > NEWS 25.08.26 16:30z 411 Lines 17231 Bytes #197 (0) @ WW
BID : 20770_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-AUG
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260825/1615Z 20770@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE AUG 25 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE AUG 25 08:32:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE AUG 25 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE AUG 25 08:32:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHILE A FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT, AS IT
INTERCEPTS A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER,
WILL INFLUENCE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH AN OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE RATON MESA/FRONT RANGE.
INFLUENCED BY THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT, EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL GENERALLY AT LEAST BE
35-40 KT. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER,
THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL,
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHERN/POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS.
INFLUENCED BY THE FRONT AND AGGREGATING OUTFLOW, ONE OR MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. WHILE WINDS
ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, A SIMILAR UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR
TREND WILL PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS FROM THE RATON
MESA VICINITY INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES, AND PERHAPS NEARBY
OKLAHOMA, WITH SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUST POTENTIAL SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
...EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AND RELATED MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX) WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. WHILE RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER MAY CURB DESTABILIZATION FOR A TIME, AND KEEP THE WARM SECTOR
SOMEWHAT NARROW, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT BY AROUND MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A ZONE OF 2000+ J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY PEAK HEATING. SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM MORE
PREVALENT MULTICELLS/SMALL CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, AT LEAST ON A WIDELY
SCATTERED BASIS.
...COASTAL SOUTHEAST/MIDDLE GULF COAST...
A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS
AND WIND DAMAGE, PARTICULARLY DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL MIGHT ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE GULF COAST SUCH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
..GUYER/WEINMAN.. 08/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING/SEVERE
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
ACTIVITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS FOCUSED WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WYOMING
FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGER, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE, STORM
ORGANIZATION IS LESS CERTAIN.
...GREAT LAKES...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID-60S
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NORMAL TO THE FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND STORM MOTION FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM
MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
HOWEVER, SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ARE SMALL, BUT DO SHOW MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR COMBINED WITH A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MAY RESULT IN A TORNADO
OR TWO.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERAL MCVS FROM DAY 1/TUESDAY CONVECTION MAY EXIST AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY KEEP
STORM MODE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER, THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH ONE OR MORE MCVS AS A
FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 08/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 25, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST.
...NORTHEAST...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH BROAD ASCENT SUPPORTING STORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, ARE EXPECTED. A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF
GREATER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN
NEW YORK. THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION CASTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL INCLUDING SOME 2+
INCH HAIL AND 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE REMAINS
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE FOCUSED CLUSTER OF STORMS TO DEVELOP, PERHAPS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM DAY2/WED CONVECTION ACROSS ARKANSAS. IF A
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER DEVELOPS, THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF DAY 1 AND DAY 2
CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 08/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 25, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST STARTING DAY 4/FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH QUITE A RANGE OF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS BROAD REGION EACH DAY.
...DAY4/FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ON FRIDAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD
OF THIS LEE TROUGH. ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THIS THREAT REMAINS NEBULOUS. THEREFORE, THE LOCATION OF
ANY SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS UNCLEAR AND THUS, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
HIGHLIGHT A MORE SPECIFIC REGION WITH A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
...DAY5/SATURDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF DAY 4 CONVECTION.
...DAY6/SUNDAY...
THE ECMWF AND AI-ECMWF REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT SHOWING A TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND EMERGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND AI-GFS HAVE
TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE, AND THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY/DAY6. THE
RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE ECMWF BUILD CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER,
EVEN THE ECMWF AND AI-ECMWF TRENDED SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SPREAD IN THE UPPER
PATTERN FROM GEFS MEMBERS AND A SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIED TREND FROM THE
ECMWF PROVIDE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO AVOID ADDING PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN BROADER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TODAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST OR INTO CENTRAL ID AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CA, NORTHWEST
NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR. A WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA.
...NORTHEASTERN OREGON, CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN OR MOUNTAINS, EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AMID INCREASING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS, PWAT VALUES OF
ONLY 0.5" TO 0.8" AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO 40S F) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS REMAIN DRY
RECEPTIVE AS EVIDENCED BY NEW RECENT LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CA AND NORTHWESTERN NV, WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE RANGE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ID.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, AN INCREASINGLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AN EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND RH AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
EXIST WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY REACH 20 MPH. RECENT LIGHTNING AND
RESULTANT NEW WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA AND NORTHWESTERN NV
WILL BE EXPOSED TO THIS ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AMID AN INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. OFFSHORE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS AND DOWNSLOPE REGIONS
OF LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES AS RH FALLS TO AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT, PRIMARILY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
USHER IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE
TROUGH AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO BRING A DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH, AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BOOST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DAYTIME INSTABILITY OVER COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY IN
ADDITION TO DIFFUSE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BRING A BROAD
AREA OF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN WESTERN MT AND NORTHERN ID AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN WA. PWAT VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 0.80" WHILE A DRY,
SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
INHIBIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE WITH NEW
IGNITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
...COLUMBIA BASIN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...
INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES
EASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WEDNESDAY. AN
EVOLVING WELL-MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE OF AROUND 15
MPH. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH RH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT AMID DRY FUELS
WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MAY EMERGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
CA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
A MULTI-DAY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
OFFSHORE/SUNDOWNER WINDS DEVELOP WITH SUPPORTIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN FAVORED TERRAIN AND DOWNSLOPE REGIONS AS RH FALLS TO AS
LOW AS 15 PERCENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF
LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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