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VA2OM > SOLAR 13.07.26 09:27z 78 Lines 3652 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12960_VE2PKT
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: HB9ON<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<VA3BAL<VE2PKT
Sent: 260713/0912Z 12960@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jul 13 0507 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 July 2026
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region
4482 (S09, L=296, class/area=Eki/420 on 08 Jul) produced the
strongest flare of the reporting period, an M4.01/1b flare at
07/1419 UTC. Type II (est. 593 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were
associated with the event. Subsequent coronagraph imagery only
contained a faint identifiable CME signature in STEREO-A COR2
imagery. No Earth-directed component was identified in the analysis
of the event. An additional Type II sweep (est. 1,441 km/s) was on
07 Jul at 07/2256 UTC and associated with an eruptive event on the W
limb. Near that time, near the Sun's E limb (N18E75), a large
filament eruption (~15 degrees) was observed beginning around
07/2116 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. The subsequent CME was analyzed and
determined to not be Earth-directed. The region only produced two
other M-class flares, an M1.5/1n flare at 08/1756 UTC and an M1.1/Sf
at 09/0227 UTC during its transit across the visible disk.
Region 4485 (S10, L=353, class/area=Dac/180 on 11 Jul) produced a
CME on 09 Jul, associated with a C2.7 flare at 09/0713 UTC, that was
analyzed and modeled. The results suggested influence from the CME
should be observed at Earth on 12 Jul. Other activity from this
region included a Type II radio sweep on 12 Jul, with the associated
CME likely to pass by Earth on 16 Jul.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 06-07 Jul following influence from combined effects
of a CME and positive polarity CH HSS. High levels were again
observed on 10-12 Jul following influence from a negative polarity
CH HSS. Moderate levels were observed on 08-09 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 06-08
Jul. Influence of a negative polarity CH HSS increased wind speeds
to over 600 km/s 09 Jul and through 10 Jul. This resulted in periods
of active conditions. Quiet conditions were observed on 11 Jul as
solar winds steadily decreased. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions were observed on 12 Jul due to the passage of a mild CME
that left the Sun on 09 Jul.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 July - 08 August 2026
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over the outlook period due
to multiple complex active regions both on the visible disk and the
return of significantly complex regions from the Sun's farside.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 13-14 Jul, 24-27 Jul, and 06-08 Aug
due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal
holes. Normal to moderate levels are likely throughout the remainder
of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active levels are likely over 13-14 Jul, 16 Jul due to
potential CME influence and again on 22 Jul, 01 Aug, And 04-05 Aug
due to anticipated coronal hole influence. Unsettled level are
likely on 15 Jul, 23 Jul, 02 Aug, and 06 Aug. The remainder of the
outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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